Everyday Murders in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The average count of per-day murders monthly in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new government data. But, security specialists have warned that murder data may not indicate improved national security.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This information was shared by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen during these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the increase in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily killings was similarly concerning because it could hide days when there were notably spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean makes spikes of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the country to express their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to construct a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.